From owner-fsj-digest-at-digest.net Sun Oct 22 09:48:16 2006
From: fsj-digest <owner-fsj-digest-at-digest.net>
fsj-digest Sunday, October 22 2006 Volume 01 : Number 2726
Forum for Discussion of Full Sized SJ Series Jeeps
Brian Colucci <ABCvoice-at-worldnet.att.net>
Digest Coordinator
Contents:
Re: fsj: XJ V6 info
fsj: using quantitative methods to decide...
fsj: RE: using quantitative methods to decide...
fsj: RE: using quantitative methods to decide...
RE: fsj: RE: using quantitative methods to decide...
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----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Sat, 21 Oct 2006 22:24:35 -0700
From: "Jim Blair" <carnuck1-at-msn.com>
Subject: Re: fsj: XJ V6 info
A: The early ones indeed festered and smelled of dung! Later ones with wider
rod throws and internal balancing were much better, but they also show other
engines with the same bolt pattern that can be swapped in (I was told) like
the Caddy Northstar V8. <G>
From: Dan Black <dan-at-black.org>
Subject: Re: fsj: XJ V6 info
"Jim Blair" <carnuck-at-hotmail.com> said:
{- More Chev 2.8L V6 (and other sizes) info
{- http://60degreev6.com/
Chevy 2.8? Ick, run away!! Worst engine ever, based on personal
experience. I'm told their 2.5 (4cyl) is even worse, but I can't
imagine much worse. Horribly slow and underpowered, lots of mechanical
and quality problems. Run away and never look back.
_________________________________________________________________
Get today's hot entertainment gossip
http://movies.msn.com/movies/hotgossip?icid=T002MSN03A07001
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 21 Oct 2006 22:39:37 -0700 (PDT)
From: john <john-at-wagoneers.com>
Subject: fsj: using quantitative methods to decide...
for those afraid of numbers, just delete this email right now... :)
engineers and math types, your input and suggestions are requested... :)
- -------------------------------------
extract from QM for Windows:
sell obtain costs
vehicle until GW sell vehicle Row Min Row Max
sell MB- buy xj 7,000 -4,000 -187.5 4,000 -4000 7000
sell MB- buy SJ 7,000 -800 -300 800 -800 7000
keep MB 0 0 -129.6 5,500 -129.6 5500
minimum -4000 5500
minimin minimax
The minimin is -4000 given by Alternative 1 - sell MB - buy xj
The minimax is 5,500 given by Alternative 3 - keep MB
- -------------------------------
(If you don't have ExcelQM or QM for windows would be happy to
get a copy to you off list if you want to help me with this homework... it comes
with the textbook and will be used for academic purposes.)
- -------------------------------
trying to use some of the decision making tools from grad school
to make a decision on selling the benz, buying a temporary vehicle
until my '91 GW is done and then selling the temp vehicle... the other
plan is to wait for the GW, test it, then sell the MB. My initial math
was pretty close on the benefits of selling the benz now, but the uncertainty
of the end product and timing caused me to back out... I need to estimate
the probabilities and come up with an EMV, or at least develop a model to
use for situations like this... I run into situations like this at work
in trying to decide to upgrade computers, etc... there never seems to be
a clean answer involved, there are always other factors...
- -------------------------------
Anyway, I'm not sure I've got this problem laid out correctly, but the basic
format was suggested by my prof.
Here's the scenario:
1) sell mb or not sell mb (1st column)
2) buy something (xj or sj) - include likely repair/xfr costs, or not buy
3) costs until GW is done, this is fuel costs for 30 to 60 days
xj's get 16 mpg at 2.5/gal, sj's 10mpg at 2.5/gal
mb gets 28mpg at 2.8/gal (more or less, making this up as I go... ;)
4) sell temp vehicle, or the mb at last, estimate later sale of
mb at lower price (funny thing is when I increase this number
the tool, a blunt instrument really, QM for windows, seems
to get stuck on the idea of buying an XJ. Maybe the programmer
favors the downsized cherokees, or I set the problem up wrong. ;)
so, the bottom line is the ending EMV (expected monetary value) seems to
point to the recommendations above.
My first run at this with excel seemed to point toward the SJ, XJ and then
keeping the MB.
I will continue to work on this analysis becasue it's relevant to the
class I'm taking and will help me develop a model that will handle my
addiction. :) hello, I'm john, and I'm a jeepaholic.
Anyway, I'm going to give a try at using Solver in Excel as well as QM
decision analysis module. Anyone out there got any suggestions on how
to better lay out this problem? (At this point it's not about really
deciding to sell Shadowfax as much as it is about learning how to use
these tools to make a decision... if the overwhelming evidence points
to the economic reality of selling Shadowfax right now I know that there
will be at least one very happy person in the midwest. ;)
What also needs to be factored in is the probability of completion
date for the '91 GW, the probability of it's successful retitling,
my acceptance of it as a suitable daily driver and so on... the main
reason I didn't part with Shadowfax and buy one of the very nice XJs
when I did is the horrible uncertainty of what happens if the GW doesn't
work out on WVO... that's one thirsty set of wheels!
I may try to use decision trees instead of tables next... better
to build a spreadsheet that allows for all the variables... each
step has independent probabilities associated with it that affect the
value at each point. Like being able to find an XJ for 4k, it might
be 4.5k, and then need .5k worth of work... operating costs are pretty
predictable, but still have a probability associated... completion of
the GW is a major unknown...
I think my prof said something about "decision making under uncertainty" was
involved... rofl... just glad I've decided to to my thesis on the TCO
of WinXP vs. Linux rather than something like making up my mind... :)
john
----
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
** http://JohnMeister.com **** http://wagoneers.com **
Snohomish, Washington USA - where Jeeps don't rust, they mold
** http://freegift.net *** http://greatcom.org/laws/languages.html **
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 21 Oct 2006 23:21:38 -0700
From: "Paul and Megan Kershner" <pk.mlk-at-verizon.net>
Subject: fsj: RE: using quantitative methods to decide...
HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-H
A-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA
That's my version of ROFL, when John starts talking about selling the Benz
(or any vehicle for that matter...).
Oh, sorry John, the below e-mail wasn't supposed to be funny? Oops...
So, John - just stop what you are doing right now. Breathe deep. One more
time, now. OK, here is how I see it and probably how it will end up (No
Engineering or Math required):
You should keep the Benz and just give the '91 GW away. If you keep the
Benz and don't build the GW diesel, you will save money and effort because
what will likely happen is that as soon as you sell it (Benz), you'll miss
it and want it back. If you finish the GW diesel project, it will go well
until you have to work on the back window and then you'll say, "Now I
remember why I got rid of the last several GWs..."
Paul
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-fsj-at-digest.net [mailto:owner-fsj-at-digest.net] On Behalf Of john
Sent: Saturday, October 21, 2006 10:40 PM
To: undisclosed-recipients:
Subject: fsj: using quantitative methods to decide...
for those afraid of numbers, just delete this email right now... :)
engineers and math types, your input and suggestions are requested... :)
- -------------------------------------
extract from QM for Windows:
sell obtain costs
vehicle until GW sell vehicle Row Min
Row Max
sell MB- buy xj 7,000 -4,000 -187.5 4,000 -4000
7000
sell MB- buy SJ 7,000 -800 -300 800 -800
7000
keep MB 0 0 -129.6 5,500 -129.6
5500
minimum -4000
5500
minimin
minimax
The minimin is -4000 given by Alternative 1 - sell MB - buy xj
The minimax is 5,500 given by Alternative 3 - keep MB
- -------------------------------
(If you don't have ExcelQM or QM for windows would be happy to
get a copy to you off list if you want to help me with this homework... it
comes
with the textbook and will be used for academic purposes.)
- -------------------------------
trying to use some of the decision making tools from grad school
to make a decision on selling the benz, buying a temporary vehicle
until my '91 GW is done and then selling the temp vehicle... the other
plan is to wait for the GW, test it, then sell the MB. My initial math
was pretty close on the benefits of selling the benz now, but the
uncertainty
of the end product and timing caused me to back out... I need to estimate
the probabilities and come up with an EMV, or at least develop a model to
use for situations like this... I run into situations like this at work
in trying to decide to upgrade computers, etc... there never seems to be
a clean answer involved, there are always other factors...
- -------------------------------
Anyway, I'm not sure I've got this problem laid out correctly, but the basic
format was suggested by my prof.
Here's the scenario:
1) sell mb or not sell mb (1st column)
2) buy something (xj or sj) - include likely repair/xfr costs, or
not buy
3) costs until GW is done, this is fuel costs for 30 to 60 days
xj's get 16 mpg at 2.5/gal, sj's 10mpg at 2.5/gal
mb gets 28mpg at 2.8/gal (more or less, making this up as I
go... ;)
4) sell temp vehicle, or the mb at last, estimate later sale of
mb at lower price (funny thing is when I increase this
number
the tool, a blunt instrument really, QM for windows, seems
to get stuck on the idea of buying an XJ. Maybe the
programmer
favors the downsized cherokees, or I set the problem up
wrong. ;)
so, the bottom line is the ending EMV (expected monetary value) seems to
point to the recommendations above.
My first run at this with excel seemed to point toward the SJ, XJ and then
keeping the MB.
I will continue to work on this analysis becasue it's relevant to the
class I'm taking and will help me develop a model that will handle my
addiction. :) hello, I'm john, and I'm a jeepaholic.
Anyway, I'm going to give a try at using Solver in Excel as well as QM
decision analysis module. Anyone out there got any suggestions on how
to better lay out this problem? (At this point it's not about really
deciding to sell Shadowfax as much as it is about learning how to use
these tools to make a decision... if the overwhelming evidence points
to the economic reality of selling Shadowfax right now I know that there
will be at least one very happy person in the midwest. ;)
What also needs to be factored in is the probability of completion
date for the '91 GW, the probability of it's successful retitling,
my acceptance of it as a suitable daily driver and so on... the main
reason I didn't part with Shadowfax and buy one of the very nice XJs
when I did is the horrible uncertainty of what happens if the GW doesn't
work out on WVO... that's one thirsty set of wheels!
I may try to use decision trees instead of tables next... better
to build a spreadsheet that allows for all the variables... each
step has independent probabilities associated with it that affect the
value at each point. Like being able to find an XJ for 4k, it might
be 4.5k, and then need .5k worth of work... operating costs are pretty
predictable, but still have a probability associated... completion of
the GW is a major unknown...
I think my prof said something about "decision making under uncertainty" was
involved... rofl... just glad I've decided to to my thesis on the TCO
of WinXP vs. Linux rather than something like making up my mind... :)
john
----
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
** http://JohnMeister.com **** http://wagoneers.com **
Snohomish, Washington USA - where Jeeps don't rust, they mold
** http://freegift.net *** http://greatcom.org/laws/languages.html **
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 21 Oct 2006 23:26:55 -0700 (PDT)
From: john <john-at-wagoneers.com>
Subject: fsj: RE: using quantitative methods to decide...
ok, excellent input Paul, now, put that into QM for me, or
excel... define the various probabilities and EMV...
and, tell us about your latest adventure with Bambi and your '91 GW. :)
john
On Sat, 21 Oct 2006, Paul and Megan Kershner wrote:
>-->HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-H
>-->A-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA
>-->
>-->That's my version of ROFL, when John starts talking about selling the Benz
>-->(or any vehicle for that matter...).
>-->
>-->Oh, sorry John, the below e-mail wasn't supposed to be funny? Oops...
>-->
>-->So, John - just stop what you are doing right now. Breathe deep. One more
>-->time, now. OK, here is how I see it and probably how it will end up (No
>-->Engineering or Math required):
>-->
>-->You should keep the Benz and just give the '91 GW away. If you keep the
>-->Benz and don't build the GW diesel, you will save money and effort because
>-->what will likely happen is that as soon as you sell it (Benz), you'll miss
>-->it and want it back. If you finish the GW diesel project, it will go well
>-->until you have to work on the back window and then you'll say, "Now I
>-->remember why I got rid of the last several GWs..."
>-->
>-->Paul
>-->
>-->-----Original Message-----
>-->From: owner-fsj-at-digest.net [mailto:owner-fsj-at-digest.net] On Behalf Of john
>-->Sent: Saturday, October 21, 2006 10:40 PM
>-->To: undisclosed-recipients:
>-->Subject: fsj: using quantitative methods to decide...
>-->
>--> for those afraid of numbers, just delete this email right now... :)
>-->
>-->engineers and math types, your input and suggestions are requested... :)
>-->-------------------------------------
>-->
>-->
>-->extract from QM for Windows:
>-->
>--> sell obtain costs
>--> vehicle until GW sell vehicle Row Min
>-->Row Max
>-->sell MB- buy xj 7,000 -4,000 -187.5 4,000 -4000
>-->7000
>-->sell MB- buy SJ 7,000 -800 -300 800 -800
>-->7000
>-->keep MB 0 0 -129.6 5,500 -129.6
>-->5500
>--> minimum -4000
>-->5500
>--> minimin
>-->minimax
>-->
>-->The minimin is -4000 given by Alternative 1 - sell MB - buy xj
>-->The minimax is 5,500 given by Alternative 3 - keep MB
>-->
>-->-------------------------------
>-->(If you don't have ExcelQM or QM for windows would be happy to
>-->get a copy to you off list if you want to help me with this homework... it
>-->comes
>-->with the textbook and will be used for academic purposes.)
>-->-------------------------------
>-->
>-->trying to use some of the decision making tools from grad school
>-->to make a decision on selling the benz, buying a temporary vehicle
>-->until my '91 GW is done and then selling the temp vehicle... the other
>-->plan is to wait for the GW, test it, then sell the MB. My initial math
>-->was pretty close on the benefits of selling the benz now, but the
>-->uncertainty
>-->of the end product and timing caused me to back out... I need to estimate
>-->the probabilities and come up with an EMV, or at least develop a model to
>-->use for situations like this... I run into situations like this at work
>-->in trying to decide to upgrade computers, etc... there never seems to be
>-->a clean answer involved, there are always other factors...
>-->-------------------------------
>-->
>-->
>-->Anyway, I'm not sure I've got this problem laid out correctly, but the basic
>-->format was suggested by my prof.
>-->
>-->Here's the scenario:
>--> 1) sell mb or not sell mb (1st column)
>-->
>--> 2) buy something (xj or sj) - include likely repair/xfr costs, or
>-->not buy
>-->
>--> 3) costs until GW is done, this is fuel costs for 30 to 60 days
>--> xj's get 16 mpg at 2.5/gal, sj's 10mpg at 2.5/gal
>--> mb gets 28mpg at 2.8/gal (more or less, making this up as I
>-->go... ;)
>-->
>--> 4) sell temp vehicle, or the mb at last, estimate later sale of
>--> mb at lower price (funny thing is when I increase this
>-->number
>--> the tool, a blunt instrument really, QM for windows, seems
>--> to get stuck on the idea of buying an XJ. Maybe the
>-->programmer
>--> favors the downsized cherokees, or I set the problem up
>-->wrong. ;)
>-->
>-->
>-->so, the bottom line is the ending EMV (expected monetary value) seems to
>-->point to the recommendations above.
>-->
>-->My first run at this with excel seemed to point toward the SJ, XJ and then
>-->keeping the MB.
>-->
>-->I will continue to work on this analysis becasue it's relevant to the
>-->class I'm taking and will help me develop a model that will handle my
>-->addiction. :) hello, I'm john, and I'm a jeepaholic.
>-->
>-->Anyway, I'm going to give a try at using Solver in Excel as well as QM
>-->decision analysis module. Anyone out there got any suggestions on how
>-->to better lay out this problem? (At this point it's not about really
>-->deciding to sell Shadowfax as much as it is about learning how to use
>-->these tools to make a decision... if the overwhelming evidence points
>-->to the economic reality of selling Shadowfax right now I know that there
>-->will be at least one very happy person in the midwest. ;)
>-->
>-->What also needs to be factored in is the probability of completion
>-->date for the '91 GW, the probability of it's successful retitling,
>-->my acceptance of it as a suitable daily driver and so on... the main
>-->reason I didn't part with Shadowfax and buy one of the very nice XJs
>-->when I did is the horrible uncertainty of what happens if the GW doesn't
>-->work out on WVO... that's one thirsty set of wheels!
>-->
>-->
>-->I may try to use decision trees instead of tables next... better
>-->to build a spreadsheet that allows for all the variables... each
>-->step has independent probabilities associated with it that affect the
>-->value at each point. Like being able to find an XJ for 4k, it might
>-->be 4.5k, and then need .5k worth of work... operating costs are pretty
>-->predictable, but still have a probability associated... completion of
>-->the GW is a major unknown...
>-->
>-->I think my prof said something about "decision making under uncertainty" was
>-->involved... rofl... just glad I've decided to to my thesis on the TCO
>-->of WinXP vs. Linux rather than something like making up my mind... :)
>-->
>-->john
>-->
>-->
>-->
>--> ----
>-->
>-->-------------------------------------------------------------------------
>--> ** http://JohnMeister.com **** http://wagoneers.com **
>--> Snohomish, Washington USA - where Jeeps don't rust, they mold
>--> ** http://freegift.net *** http://greatcom.org/laws/languages.html **
>-->-------------------------------------------------------------------------
>-->
----
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
** http://JohnMeister.com **** http://wagoneers.com **
Snohomish, Washington USA - where Jeeps don't rust, they mold
** http://freegift.net *** http://greatcom.org/laws/languages.html **
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2006 16:42:00 +0000
From: "michel balea" <mbalea-at-hotmail.com>
Subject: RE: fsj: RE: using quantitative methods to decide...
Paul is right... this GW or SJ is a disease! an addiction..... Friends
always ask me what would i drive if there were no GW....
I think that we have spend too much time fixing those beasts, that we need
to justify owning them because we know all the quirks and fixes
Michel
74 wag
From: john <john-at-wagoneers.com>
Reply-To: john <john-at-wagoneers.com>
To: Paul and Megan Kershner <pk.mlk-at-verizon.net>
CC: diesel-benz list <diesel-benz-at-digest.net>, fsj <fsj-at-digest.net>
Subject: fsj: RE: using quantitative methods to decide...
Date: Sat, 21 Oct 2006 23:26:55 -0700 (PDT)
ok, excellent input Paul, now, put that into QM for me, or
excel... define the various probabilities and EMV...
and, tell us about your latest adventure with Bambi and your '91 GW. :)
john
On Sat, 21 Oct 2006, Paul and Megan Kershner wrote:
>-->HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-H
>-->A-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA
>-->
>-->That's my version of ROFL, when John starts talking about selling the
Benz
>-->(or any vehicle for that matter...).
>-->
>-->Oh, sorry John, the below e-mail wasn't supposed to be funny? Oops...
>-->
>-->So, John - just stop what you are doing right now. Breathe deep. One
more
>-->time, now. OK, here is how I see it and probably how it will end up
(No
>-->Engineering or Math required):
>-->
>-->You should keep the Benz and just give the '91 GW away. If you keep
the
>-->Benz and don't build the GW diesel, you will save money and effort
because
>-->what will likely happen is that as soon as you sell it (Benz), you'll
miss
>-->it and want it back. If you finish the GW diesel project, it will go
well
>-->until you have to work on the back window and then you'll say, "Now I
>-->remember why I got rid of the last several GWs..."
>-->
>-->Paul
>-->
>-->-----Original Message-----
>-->From: owner-fsj-at-digest.net [mailto:owner-fsj-at-digest.net] On Behalf Of
john
>-->Sent: Saturday, October 21, 2006 10:40 PM
>-->To: undisclosed-recipients:
>-->Subject: fsj: using quantitative methods to decide...
>-->
>--> for those afraid of numbers, just delete this email right now... :)
>-->
>-->engineers and math types, your input and suggestions are requested...
:)
>-->-------------------------------------
>-->
>-->
>-->extract from QM for Windows:
>-->
>--> sell obtain costs
>--> vehicle until GW sell vehicle Row Min
>-->Row Max
>-->sell MB- buy xj 7,000 -4,000 -187.5 4,000 -4000
>-->7000
>-->sell MB- buy SJ 7,000 -800 -300 800 -800
>-->7000
>-->keep MB 0 0 -129.6 5,500 -129.6
>-->5500
>--> minimum -4000
>-->5500
>--> minimin
>-->minimax
>-->
>-->The minimin is -4000 given by Alternative 1 - sell MB - buy xj
>-->The minimax is 5,500 given by Alternative 3 - keep MB
>-->
>-->-------------------------------
>-->(If you don't have ExcelQM or QM for windows would be happy to
>-->get a copy to you off list if you want to help me with this homework...
it
>-->comes
>-->with the textbook and will be used for academic purposes.)
>-->-------------------------------
>-->
>-->trying to use some of the decision making tools from grad school
>-->to make a decision on selling the benz, buying a temporary vehicle
>-->until my '91 GW is done and then selling the temp vehicle... the
other
>-->plan is to wait for the GW, test it, then sell the MB. My initial
math
>-->was pretty close on the benefits of selling the benz now, but the
>-->uncertainty
>-->of the end product and timing caused me to back out... I need to
estimate
>-->the probabilities and come up with an EMV, or at least develop a model
to
>-->use for situations like this... I run into situations like this at
work
>-->in trying to decide to upgrade computers, etc... there never seems to
be
>-->a clean answer involved, there are always other factors...
>-->-------------------------------
>-->
>-->
>-->Anyway, I'm not sure I've got this problem laid out correctly, but the
basic
>-->format was suggested by my prof.
>-->
>-->Here's the scenario:
>--> 1) sell mb or not sell mb (1st column)
>-->
>--> 2) buy something (xj or sj) - include likely repair/xfr costs, or
>-->not buy
>-->
>--> 3) costs until GW is done, this is fuel costs for 30 to 60 days
>--> xj's get 16 mpg at 2.5/gal, sj's 10mpg at 2.5/gal
>--> mb gets 28mpg at 2.8/gal (more or less, making this up as I
>-->go... ;)
>-->
>--> 4) sell temp vehicle, or the mb at last, estimate later sale of
>--> mb at lower price (funny thing is when I increase this
>-->number
>--> the tool, a blunt instrument really, QM for windows, seems
>--> to get stuck on the idea of buying an XJ. Maybe the
>-->programmer
>--> favors the downsized cherokees, or I set the problem up
>-->wrong. ;)
>-->
>-->
>-->so, the bottom line is the ending EMV (expected monetary value) seems
to
>-->point to the recommendations above.
>-->
>-->My first run at this with excel seemed to point toward the SJ, XJ and
then
>-->keeping the MB.
>-->
>-->I will continue to work on this analysis becasue it's relevant to the
>-->class I'm taking and will help me develop a model that will handle my
>-->addiction. :) hello, I'm john, and I'm a jeepaholic.
>-->
>-->Anyway, I'm going to give a try at using Solver in Excel as well as QM
>-->decision analysis module. Anyone out there got any suggestions on how
>-->to better lay out this problem? (At this point it's not about really
>-->deciding to sell Shadowfax as much as it is about learning how to use
>-->these tools to make a decision... if the overwhelming evidence points
>-->to the economic reality of selling Shadowfax right now I know that
there
>-->will be at least one very happy person in the midwest. ;)
>-->
>-->What also needs to be factored in is the probability of completion
>-->date for the '91 GW, the probability of it's successful retitling,
>-->my acceptance of it as a suitable daily driver and so on... the main
>-->reason I didn't part with Shadowfax and buy one of the very nice XJs
>-->when I did is the horrible uncertainty of what happens if the GW
doesn't
>-->work out on WVO... that's one thirsty set of wheels!
>-->
>-->
>-->I may try to use decision trees instead of tables next... better
>-->to build a spreadsheet that allows for all the variables... each
>-->step has independent probabilities associated with it that affect the
>-->value at each point. Like being able to find an XJ for 4k, it might
>-->be 4.5k, and then need .5k worth of work... operating costs are pretty
>-->predictable, but still have a probability associated... completion of
>-->the GW is a major unknown...
>-->
>-->I think my prof said something about "decision making under
uncertainty" was
>-->involved... rofl... just glad I've decided to to my thesis on the
TCO
>-->of WinXP vs. Linux rather than something like making up my mind... :)
>-->
>-->john
>-->
>-->
>-->
>--> ----
>-->
>-->-------------------------------------------------------------------------
>--> ** http://JohnMeister.com **** http://wagoneers.com **
>--> Snohomish, Washington USA - where Jeeps don't rust, they mold
>--> ** http://freegift.net *** http://greatcom.org/laws/languages.html **
>-->-------------------------------------------------------------------------
>-->
----
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
** http://JohnMeister.com **** http://wagoneers.com **
Snohomish, Washington USA - where Jeeps don't rust, they mold
** http://freegift.net *** http://greatcom.org/laws/languages.html **
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
_________________________________________________________________
Use your PC to make calls at very low rates
https://voiceoam.pcs.v2s.live.com/partnerredirect.aspx
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End of fsj-digest V1 #2726
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