From owner-diesel-benz-digest-at-digest.net Sun Oct 22 10:57:01 2006 From: diesel-benz-digest diesel-benz-digest Sunday, October 22 2006 Volume 01 : Number 2284 Forum for Discussion of Diesel Mercedes Benz Automobiles Derick Amburgey Digest Coordinator Contents: Re: [db] RE: using quantitative methods to decide... Re: [db] RE: using quantitative methods to decide... RE: [db] RE: using quantitative methods to decide... Diesel Benz Digest Home Page: http://www.digest.net/diesel-benz/ Send submissions to diesel-benz-digest-at-digest.net Send administrative requests to diesel-benz-digest-request-at-digest.net To unsubscribe, include the word unsubscribe by itself in the body of the message, unless you are sending the request from a different address than the one that appears on the list. Include the word help in a message to stag-digest-request to get a list of other majordomo commands. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2006 09:57:39 -0400 From: "Jim Hoffman" Subject: Re: [db] RE: using quantitative methods to decide... Using quantitative methods to decide what car/truck to keep?!?! Are you nuts?!?! Buying/selling/working on vehicles is too subjective. It's an emotional process that defys mathmatics or just about any other logical process known to man! Give it up. It's a waste of time. Jim > ok, excellent input Paul, now, put that into QM for me, or > excel... define the various probabilities and EMV... > > and, tell us about your latest adventure with Bambi and your '91 GW. :) > > john > > On Sat, 21 Oct 2006, Paul and Megan Kershner wrote: > > >-->HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-H > >-->A-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA > >--> > >-->That's my version of ROFL, when John starts talking about selling the Benz > >-->(or any vehicle for that matter...). > >--> > >-->Oh, sorry John, the below e-mail wasn't supposed to be funny? Oops... > >--> > >-->So, John - just stop what you are doing right now. Breathe deep. One more > >-->time, now. OK, here is how I see it and probably how it will end up (No > >-->Engineering or Math required): > >--> > >-->You should keep the Benz and just give the '91 GW away. If you keep the > >-->Benz and don't build the GW diesel, you will save money and effort because > >-->what will likely happen is that as soon as you sell it (Benz), you'll miss > >-->it and want it back. If you finish the GW diesel project, it will go well > >-->until you have to work on the back window and then you'll say, "Now I > >-->remember why I got rid of the last several GWs..." > >--> > >-->Paul > >--> > >-->-----Original Message----- > >-->From: owner-fsj-at-digest.net [mailto:owner-fsj-at-digest.net] On Behalf Of john > >-->Sent: Saturday, October 21, 2006 10:40 PM > >-->To: undisclosed-recipients: > >-->Subject: fsj: using quantitative methods to decide... > >--> > >--> for those afraid of numbers, just delete this email right now... :) > >--> > >-->engineers and math types, your input and suggestions are requested... :) > >-->------------------------------------- > >--> > >--> > >-->extract from QM for Windows: > >--> > >--> sell obtain costs > >--> vehicle until GW sell vehicle Row Min > >-->Row Max > >-->sell MB- buy xj 7,000 -4,000 -187.5 4,000 -4000 > >-->7000 > >-->sell MB- buy SJ 7,000 -800 -300 800 -800 > >-->7000 > >-->keep MB 0 0 -129.6 5,500 -129.6 > >-->5500 > >--> minimum -4000 > >-->5500 > >--> minimin > >-->minimax > >--> > >-->The minimin is -4000 given by Alternative 1 - sell MB - buy xj > >-->The minimax is 5,500 given by Alternative 3 - keep MB > >--> > >-->------------------------------- > >-->(If you don't have ExcelQM or QM for windows would be happy to > >-->get a copy to you off list if you want to help me with this homework... it > >-->comes > >-->with the textbook and will be used for academic purposes.) > >-->------------------------------- > >--> > >-->trying to use some of the decision making tools from grad school > >-->to make a decision on selling the benz, buying a temporary vehicle > >-->until my '91 GW is done and then selling the temp vehicle... the other > >-->plan is to wait for the GW, test it, then sell the MB. My initial math > >-->was pretty close on the benefits of selling the benz now, but the > >-->uncertainty > >-->of the end product and timing caused me to back out... I need to estimate > >-->the probabilities and come up with an EMV, or at least develop a model to > >-->use for situations like this... I run into situations like this at work > >-->in trying to decide to upgrade computers, etc... there never seems to be > >-->a clean answer involved, there are always other factors... > >-->------------------------------- > >--> > >--> > >-->Anyway, I'm not sure I've got this problem laid out correctly, but the basic > >-->format was suggested by my prof. > >--> > >-->Here's the scenario: > >--> 1) sell mb or not sell mb (1st column) > >--> > >--> 2) buy something (xj or sj) - include likely repair/xfr costs, or > >-->not buy > >--> > >--> 3) costs until GW is done, this is fuel costs for 30 to 60 days > >--> xj's get 16 mpg at 2.5/gal, sj's 10mpg at 2.5/gal > >--> mb gets 28mpg at 2.8/gal (more or less, making this up as I > >-->go... ;) > >--> > >--> 4) sell temp vehicle, or the mb at last, estimate later sale of > >--> mb at lower price (funny thing is when I increase this > >-->number > >--> the tool, a blunt instrument really, QM for windows, seems > >--> to get stuck on the idea of buying an XJ. Maybe the > >-->programmer > >--> favors the downsized cherokees, or I set the problem up > >-->wrong. ;) > >--> > >--> > >-->so, the bottom line is the ending EMV (expected monetary value) seems to > >-->point to the recommendations above. > >--> > >-->My first run at this with excel seemed to point toward the SJ, XJ and then > >-->keeping the MB. > >--> > >-->I will continue to work on this analysis becasue it's relevant to the > >-->class I'm taking and will help me develop a model that will handle my > >-->addiction. :) hello, I'm john, and I'm a jeepaholic. > >--> > >-->Anyway, I'm going to give a try at using Solver in Excel as well as QM > >-->decision analysis module. Anyone out there got any suggestions on how > >-->to better lay out this problem? (At this point it's not about really > >-->deciding to sell Shadowfax as much as it is about learning how to use > >-->these tools to make a decision... if the overwhelming evidence points > >-->to the economic reality of selling Shadowfax right now I know that there > >-->will be at least one very happy person in the midwest. ;) > >--> > >-->What also needs to be factored in is the probability of completion > >-->date for the '91 GW, the probability of it's successful retitling, > >-->my acceptance of it as a suitable daily driver and so on... the main > >-->reason I didn't part with Shadowfax and buy one of the very nice XJs > >-->when I did is the horrible uncertainty of what happens if the GW doesn't > >-->work out on WVO... that's one thirsty set of wheels! > >--> > >--> > >-->I may try to use decision trees instead of tables next... better > >-->to build a spreadsheet that allows for all the variables... each > >-->step has independent probabilities associated with it that affect the > >-->value at each point. Like being able to find an XJ for 4k, it might > >-->be 4.5k, and then need .5k worth of work... operating costs are pretty > >-->predictable, but still have a probability associated... completion of > >-->the GW is a major unknown... > >--> > >-->I think my prof said something about "decision making under uncertainty" was > >-->involved... rofl... just glad I've decided to to my thesis on the TCO > >-->of WinXP vs. Linux rather than something like making up my mind... :) > >--> > >-->john > >--> > >--> > >--> > >--> ---- > >--> > >-->------------------------------------------------------------------------- > >--> ** http://JohnMeister.com **** http://wagoneers.com ** > >--> Snohomish, Washington USA - where Jeeps don't rust, they mold > >--> ** http://freegift.net *** http://greatcom.org/laws/languages.html ** > >-->------------------------------------------------------------------------- > >--> > > ---- > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------- > ** http://JohnMeister.com **** http://wagoneers.com ** > Snohomish, Washington USA - where Jeeps don't rust, they mold > ** http://freegift.net *** http://greatcom.org/laws/languages.html ** > ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2006 08:21:39 -0700 (PDT) From: john Subject: Re: [db] RE: using quantitative methods to decide... no, it can be, it will be... quantified... :) john On Sun, 22 Oct 2006, Jim Hoffman wrote: >-->Using quantitative methods to decide what car/truck to >-->keep?!?! Are you nuts?!?! Buying/selling/working on >-->vehicles is too subjective. It's an emotional process >-->that defys mathmatics or just about any other logical >-->process known to man! Give it up. It's a waste of time. >--> >-->Jim >--> >-->> ok, excellent input Paul, now, put that into QM for me, or >-->> excel... define the various probabilities and EMV... >-->> >-->> and, tell us about your latest adventure with Bambi and your '91 GW. :) >-->> >-->> john >-->> >-->> On Sat, 21 Oct 2006, Paul and Megan Kershner wrote: >-->> >-->> >-->HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-H >-->> >-->A-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA >-->> >--> >-->> >-->That's my version of ROFL, when John starts talking about selling the Benz >-->> >-->(or any vehicle for that matter...). >-->> >--> >-->> >-->Oh, sorry John, the below e-mail wasn't supposed to be funny? Oops... >-->> >--> >-->> >-->So, John - just stop what you are doing right now. Breathe deep. One more >-->> >-->time, now. OK, here is how I see it and probably how it will end up (No >-->> >-->Engineering or Math required): >-->> >--> >-->> >-->You should keep the Benz and just give the '91 GW away. If you keep the >-->> >-->Benz and don't build the GW diesel, you will save money and effort because >-->> >-->what will likely happen is that as soon as you sell it (Benz), you'll miss >-->> >-->it and want it back. If you finish the GW diesel project, it will go well >-->> >-->until you have to work on the back window and then you'll say, "Now I >-->> >-->remember why I got rid of the last several GWs..." >-->> >--> >-->> >-->Paul >-->> >--> >-->> >-->-----Original Message----- >-->> >-->From: owner-fsj-at-digest.net [mailto:owner-fsj-at-digest.net] On Behalf Of john >-->> >-->Sent: Saturday, October 21, 2006 10:40 PM >-->> >-->To: undisclosed-recipients: >-->> >-->Subject: fsj: using quantitative methods to decide... >-->> >--> >-->> >--> for those afraid of numbers, just delete this email right now... :) >-->> >--> >-->> >-->engineers and math types, your input and suggestions are requested... :) >-->> >-->------------------------------------- >-->> >--> >-->> >--> >-->> >-->extract from QM for Windows: >-->> >--> >-->> >--> sell obtain costs >-->> >--> vehicle until GW sell vehicle Row Min >-->> >-->Row Max >-->> >-->sell MB- buy xj 7,000 -4,000 -187.5 4,000 -4000 >-->> >-->7000 >-->> >-->sell MB- buy SJ 7,000 -800 -300 800 -800 >-->> >-->7000 >-->> >-->keep MB 0 0 -129.6 5,500 -129.6 >-->> >-->5500 >-->> >--> minimum -4000 >-->> >-->5500 >-->> >--> minimin >-->> >-->minimax >-->> >--> >-->> >-->The minimin is -4000 given by Alternative 1 - sell MB - buy xj >-->> >-->The minimax is 5,500 given by Alternative 3 - keep MB >-->> >--> >-->> >-->------------------------------- >-->> >-->(If you don't have ExcelQM or QM for windows would be happy to >-->> >-->get a copy to you off list if you want to help me with this homework... it >-->> >-->comes >-->> >-->with the textbook and will be used for academic purposes.) >-->> >-->------------------------------- >-->> >--> >-->> >-->trying to use some of the decision making tools from grad school >-->> >-->to make a decision on selling the benz, buying a temporary vehicle >-->> >-->until my '91 GW is done and then selling the temp vehicle... the other >-->> >-->plan is to wait for the GW, test it, then sell the MB. My initial math >-->> >-->was pretty close on the benefits of selling the benz now, but the >-->> >-->uncertainty >-->> >-->of the end product and timing caused me to back out... I need to estimate >-->> >-->the probabilities and come up with an EMV, or at least develop a model to >-->> >-->use for situations like this... I run into situations like this at work >-->> >-->in trying to decide to upgrade computers, etc... there never seems to be >-->> >-->a clean answer involved, there are always other factors... >-->> >-->------------------------------- >-->> >--> >-->> >--> >-->> >-->Anyway, I'm not sure I've got this problem laid out correctly, but the basic >-->> >-->format was suggested by my prof. >-->> >--> >-->> >-->Here's the scenario: >-->> >--> 1) sell mb or not sell mb (1st column) >-->> >--> >-->> >--> 2) buy something (xj or sj) - include likely repair/xfr costs, or >-->> >-->not buy >-->> >--> >-->> >--> 3) costs until GW is done, this is fuel costs for 30 to 60 days >-->> >--> xj's get 16 mpg at 2.5/gal, sj's 10mpg at 2.5/gal >-->> >--> mb gets 28mpg at 2.8/gal (more or less, making this up as I >-->> >-->go... ;) >-->> >--> >-->> >--> 4) sell temp vehicle, or the mb at last, estimate later sale of >-->> >--> mb at lower price (funny thing is when I increase this >-->> >-->number >-->> >--> the tool, a blunt instrument really, QM for windows, seems >-->> >--> to get stuck on the idea of buying an XJ. Maybe the >-->> >-->programmer >-->> >--> favors the downsized cherokees, or I set the problem up >-->> >-->wrong. ;) >-->> >--> >-->> >--> >-->> >-->so, the bottom line is the ending EMV (expected monetary value) seems to >-->> >-->point to the recommendations above. >-->> >--> >-->> >-->My first run at this with excel seemed to point toward the SJ, XJ and then >-->> >-->keeping the MB. >-->> >--> >-->> >-->I will continue to work on this analysis becasue it's relevant to the >-->> >-->class I'm taking and will help me develop a model that will handle my >-->> >-->addiction. :) hello, I'm john, and I'm a jeepaholic. >-->> >--> >-->> >-->Anyway, I'm going to give a try at using Solver in Excel as well as QM >-->> >-->decision analysis module. Anyone out there got any suggestions on how >-->> >-->to better lay out this problem? (At this point it's not about really >-->> >-->deciding to sell Shadowfax as much as it is about learning how to use >-->> >-->these tools to make a decision... if the overwhelming evidence points >-->> >-->to the economic reality of selling Shadowfax right now I know that there >-->> >-->will be at least one very happy person in the midwest. ;) >-->> >--> >-->> >-->What also needs to be factored in is the probability of completion >-->> >-->date for the '91 GW, the probability of it's successful retitling, >-->> >-->my acceptance of it as a suitable daily driver and so on... the main >-->> >-->reason I didn't part with Shadowfax and buy one of the very nice XJs >-->> >-->when I did is the horrible uncertainty of what happens if the GW doesn't >-->> >-->work out on WVO... that's one thirsty set of wheels! >-->> >--> >-->> >--> >-->> >-->I may try to use decision trees instead of tables next... better >-->> >-->to build a spreadsheet that allows for all the variables... each >-->> >-->step has independent probabilities associated with it that affect the >-->> >-->value at each point. Like being able to find an XJ for 4k, it might >-->> >-->be 4.5k, and then need .5k worth of work... operating costs are pretty >-->> >-->predictable, but still have a probability associated... completion of >-->> >-->the GW is a major unknown... >-->> >--> >-->> >-->I think my prof said something about "decision making under uncertainty" was >-->> >-->involved... rofl... just glad I've decided to to my thesis on the TCO >-->> >-->of WinXP vs. Linux rather than something like making up my mind... :) >-->> >--> >-->> >-->john >-->> >--> >-->> >--> >-->> >--> >-->> >--> ---- >-->> >--> >-->> >-->------------------------------------------------------------------------- >-->> >--> ** http://JohnMeister.com **** http://wagoneers.com ** >-->> >--> Snohomish, Washington USA - where Jeeps don't rust, they mold >-->> >--> ** http://freegift.net *** http://greatcom.org/laws/languages.html ** >-->> >-->------------------------------------------------------------------------- >-->> >--> >-->> >-->> ---- >-->> >-->> ------------------------------------------------------------------------- >-->> ** http://JohnMeister.com **** http://wagoneers.com ** >-->> Snohomish, Washington USA - where Jeeps don't rust, they mold >-->> ** http://freegift.net *** http://greatcom.org/laws/languages.html ** >-->> ------------------------------------------------------------------------- >--> ---- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** http://JohnMeister.com **** http://wagoneers.com ** Snohomish, Washington USA - where Jeeps don't rust, they mold ** http://freegift.net *** http://greatcom.org/laws/languages.html ** - ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2006 12:51:04 -0500 From: "Alec Cordova" Subject: RE: [db] RE: using quantitative methods to decide... OK. If you INSIST on treating the Benz as equally desirable, let's work with this. Your Row Min and Row Max columns, and hence the minimum and minimax values, appear to simply show the smallest or largest values in the rows. They aren't doing any math. You need to add all the incomes and expenses for each row. That would produce (in a monospaced font): Plan Net result in your bank account sell MB- buy xj +6812.5 sell MB- buy SJ +6700 keep MB +5370.4 But with your assumption that you can sell the XJ or SJ for exactly what you put in to it, you could easily remove that purchase and sale, in which case you're only comparing the running costs of the three choices versus the depreciation of the Benz. This certainly questions the assumption about breaking even on the temporary vehicle. There's even a risk that the Benz will incur other costs besides simple depreciation, or that it will not depreciate $1500 in one or two months. I would say you should somehow try to use ranges with confidence levels to address running costs, repair costs, and potential depreciation for each plan. You would likely end up with one choice that has a chance of being the cheapest (or most profitable), but a different choice that has the lowest risk of being the most expensive. However, if the analysis indicates that these two outcomes are produced by the same plan, then that's clearly your winner. Just the opinion of a BS in Math, probably heavy on the BS. ;-) For the rest of us who know John can't live without a diesel Benz in his life for long, we can always take heart in the thought that if John sells Shadowfax, he will simply be bringing yet another diesel Benz into shape and on the market soon after that. We can still enjoy our popcorn guessing which model will be the next contestant. I think an 86/87 300SD (3.0 engine, not 3.5) would pleasantly surprise him, although a nice 83-ish 300TD could get a good workout with him. The dark horse is if he stumbles on a whale of a deal on a 300GD. Alec Cordova Taylor, Texas 89 300CE, 211K ------------------------------ End of diesel-benz-digest V1 #2284 **********************************